JHK FORECASTS

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Sabato's Crystal Ball

Take a deep dive into Sabato's Crystal Ball's previous forecasts and how well they performed.

Elections

Click an election to see ratings for that election.

*The lower the brier score the better. It is calculated by the averaging (prob - outcome)^2. For example, a 70% race goes the other way, (.70-0)^2 = .49. Brier score is more complete compared to just win %, as win % is binary, and brier takes into account the given probability. Experts who use tossups will be 50% correct on all tossups.

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Election Types

How has Sabato's Crystal Ball performed in certain types of elections?

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Sabato's Crystal Ball's forecast.

Democrats

200

218

Republicans

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Forecast Rating %'s

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vs. Other Forecasts

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Race Ratings

Races shown are only competitive races or missed races