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Sabato's Crystal Ball
Take a deep dive into Sabato's Crystal Ball's previous forecasts and how well they performed.
Elections
Click an election to see ratings for that election.
*The lower the brier score the better. It is calculated by the averaging (prob - outcome)^2. For example, a 70% race goes the other way, (.70-0)^2 = .49. Brier score is more complete compared to just win %, as win % is binary, and brier takes into account the given probability. Experts who use tossups will be 50% correct on all tossups.
Calibration Plot
Take a look how forecasted probabilities compare to actual outcomes.
Sabato's Crystal Ball's forecast.
|
Democrats |
200 |
218 |
Republicans |
Forecast Rating %'s
vs. Other Forecasts
Race Ratings
Races shown are only competitive races or missed races
Created by: Jack Kersting
Download Data
