Democratic Primary

Presidential

Senate

QUALIFYING POLLSTERS

FORECASTS

*RMSE = ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR. JUST ANOTHER WAY TO CALCULATE ERROR. BIGGER MISSES HAVE MORE WEIGHT THAN SMALLER ONES.

*MEAN REVERTED ERROR IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS RMSE AND THE AVERAGE RMSE FOR THAT STATE. SO FOR EXAMPLE JHK FORECASTS HAS AN RMSE OF 3.1 IN A STATE AND THE AVERAGE FOR ALL FORECASTS IN THAT STATE IS 4.7, MEAN REVERTED RMSE IS -1.7. MEAN-REVERTED ERROR IS A BETTER WAY TO AVERAGE ERRORS FROM DIFFERENT EVENTS.

STATE ACCURACY

ALL POLLSTER