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2024 Senate Forecast

The model was frozen at 4:00PM Nov. 4th.

Democrats

Republicans

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Race over time

The race for the White House can be a volatile one due. Take a look at the race over time.

Win Senate

Proj. Seats

What the Chamber could look like.

The forecast runs thousands of simulations,below shows the distribution of how the Senate could look like after the election.

Harris Wins

All Outcomes

Trump Wins

How much does a seat matter to Republicans?

Take a look at which states help or hurt each parties chances the most. Click on the party above to change parties.

Getting the Majority

In the event of a 50/50 tie, the Vice president breaks the tie. Be aware, some of the paths are very unlikely, the model runs 10,000 of these. The highlighted state is the state that gets the majority party the majority.

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The Battlegrounds

The Senate majority is decided by a few key states. The tipping point state is the state that gets the winner over the 50 mark. The graphic below shows the tipping point states, as well as their margins.

2024 Senate Forecast

The model was frozen at 4:00PM Nov. 4th.

DEM

GOP

-

-

Race over time

The race for the White House can be a volatile one due. Take a look at the race over time.

Win Senate

Proj. Seats

What the Chamber could look like.

The forecast runs thousands of simulations,below shows the distribution of how the Senate could look like after the election.

Harris Wins

All Outcomes

Trump Wins

How much does a seat matter to Republicans?

Take a look at which states help or hurt each parties chances the most. Click on the party above to change parties.

Getting the Majority

In the event of a 50/50 tie, the Vice president breaks the tie. Be aware, some of the paths are very unlikely, the model runs 10,000 of these. The highlighted state is the state that gets the majority party the majority.

0

0

The Battlegrounds

With the polarization of US politics now, and the structure of the Electoral College, presiential elections come down to a few key states. The state that gets the winner over the 270 mark is called the tipping point state. The graphic below shows the tipping point states, as well as their margins.