How Does it Work?

This tool allows you to adjust the forecast of the 2024 Presidential Election. This tool can is very helpful on election night, as incoming results will affect the outcomes in differnt ways. The model allows you to adjust the correlation between states, the variance of the model, the aggression of the model, and the national shift. It also allows you to pick from different starting points, and than make race calls or narrow the prediction of states. The model is then used to simulate the election 10,000 times to determine the probability of each candidate winning each state and the election.

Next >>

There are many adjustments that can be made to the model.

Firstly, you can choose different starting points. You can choose from forecasts or the last two election. Each starting point has different variances, but will be run using the same model.

Correlation Factor adjusts the correlation between states. This affects the simulation as well as how the model picks up updates.

Variance Factor adjusts the starting variance of the model across all states.

Model Aggression adjusts how much the model will change the forecast based on new information. The more aggressive the model, the more it will change the forecast based on new information. The Model starts out a little cautious, but can be adjusted to be more aggressive.

National Shift shifts the starting point of the model for each candidate.

All of these adjustments can help you customize the model to your liking. If you have already updated a state, the model will not update that state, besides its correlation.

Next >>

Resetting & Sharing the Model

The Reset All button above will reset the model to its original state. This action can't be undone, so be careful when using it.

You can also share your forecast by clicking the Share Forecast button above. This will generate a link that you can share with others. Everyone will be able to veiw regardless if they are JHK+ members.

Next >>

Other Graphics

The model simulations output other graphics which can be found below.

That's it! You now understand how the model works!

* Close *

Starting Point:

Adjustments:

Correlation Factor:

Variance Factor:

Model Aggression:

National Shift:

Close

Change The State

Data included in model from: FiveThirtyEight, Dave's Redistricting, MIT Election Lab, Split Ticket, CNalysis, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections & Sabato Crystal Ball Sabato St. Louis Fed