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2024 Presidential Forecast

Four years after Biden's victory, the United States is gearing up for another Presidential election. This time it is Biden's VP, Kamala Harris, who is trying to win The White House.

Kamala Harris

Donald Trump

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Race over time

The race for the White House can be a volatile one due. Take a look at the race over time.

Win

Electoral Votes

Popular Vote


State Correlation

The map below shows how often states vote together. You can filter it for when Trump or Harris wins that state, or just keep it all outcomes. The map shows how the model treats states in the same region, and projected margins.

Harris Wins

All Outcomes

Trump Wins


Getting to 270

The Presidential Election magic number is 270. A candidate needs to win this magic number of electoral votes to win the Presidency. The graphic below shows possible ways of getting to 270. Be aware, some of the paths are very unlikely, the model runs 10,000 of these.

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The Battlegrounds

With the polarization of US politics now, and the structure of the Electoral College, presiential elections come down to a few key states. The state that gets the winner over the 270 mark is called the tipping point state. The graphic below shows the tipping point states, as well as their margins.

2024 Presidential Forecast

Four years after Biden's victory, the United States is gearing up for another Presidential election. This time it is Biden's VP, Kamala Harris, who is trying to win The White House.


Harris

Trump

-

-



Race over time

The race for the White House can be a volatile one due. Take a look at the race over time.

Win

Electoral Votes

Popular Vote


State Correlation

The table below shows how often states vote together. The first column is all outcomes, the second is when Trump wins that state, and the third is when Harris wins that state.


Getting to 270

The Presidential Election magic number is 270. A candidate needs to win this magic number of electoral votes to win the Presidency. The graphic below shows possible ways of getting to 270. Be aware, some of the paths are very unlikely, the model runs 10,000 of these.

0

0


The Battlegrounds

With the polarization of US politics now, and the structure of the Electoral College, presiential elections come down to a few key states. The state that gets the winner over the 270 mark is called the tipping point state. The graphic below shows the tipping point states, as well as their margins.