Race over time

The race for the White House can be a volatile one due. Take a look at the race over time.

State Correlation

The map below shows how often states vote together. You can filter it for when Trump or Harris wins that state, or just keep it all outcomes. The map shows how the model treats states in the same region, and projected margins.

Getting to 270

The Presidential Election magic number is 270. A candidate needs to win this magic number of electoral votes to win the Presidency. The graphic below shows possible ways of getting to 270. Be aware, some of the paths are very unlikely, the model runs 10,000 of these.

The Battlegrounds

With the polarization of US politics now, and the structure of the Electoral College, presiential elections come down to a few key states. The state that gets the winner over the 270 mark is called the tipping point state. The graphic below shows the tipping point states, as well as their margins.

Data included in model from: FiveThirtyEight, Dave's Redistricting, MIT Election Lab, Split Ticket, CNalysis, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections & Sabato Crystal Ball Sabato St. Louis Fed