Change Forecast ↓
Standard
2024 Presidential Forecast
Four years after a heated and controversial 2020 Presidential election, the United States is gearing up for another one, with the same polarizing candidates.
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Joe Biden |
Donald Trump |
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Race over time
The race for the White House can be a volatile one due. Take a look at the race over time.
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Win |
Electoral Votes |
Popular Vote |
State Correlation
The map below shows how often states vote together. You can filter it for when Trump or Biden wins that state, or just keep it all outcomes. The map shows how the model treats states in the same region, and projected margins.
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Biden Wins |
All Outcomes |
Trump Wins |
Getting to 270
The Presidential Election magic number is 270. A candidate needs to win this magic number of electoral votes to win the Presidency. The graphic below shows possible ways of getting to 270. Be aware, some of the paths are very unlikely, the model runs 10,000 of these.
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The Battlegrounds
With the polarization of US politics now, and the structure of the Electoral College, presiential elections come down to a few key states. The state that gets the winner over the 270 mark is called the tipping point state. The graphic below shows the tipping point states, as well as their margins.
Data included in model from: FiveThirtyEight, Dave's Redistricting, MIT Election Lab, Split Ticket, CNalysis, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections & Sabato Crystal Ball
