Change Forecast ↓

Standard

2024 House Forecast

The model was frozen at 4:00PM Nov. 4th.

Democrats

Republicans

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Race over time

The race for the White House can be a volatile one due. Take a look at the race over time.

Win House

Proj. Seats

What the Chamber could look like.

The forecast runs thousands of simulations,below shows the distribution of how the House could look like after the election.

Harris Wins

All Outcomes

Trump Wins

Getting the Majority

To get the majority in the House, a party needs 218 seats. The model runs 10,000 simulations to see how each party can get there. The highlighted state is the state that gets the majority party the majority.

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The Battlegrounds

Given poltical polarization and redistricting only has a few competitive districts. The tipping point district is the district that gets the majority party the majority. The graphic below shows the tipping point districts, as well as their margins.

2024 House Forecast

The model was frozen at 4:00PM Nov. 4th.

DEM

GOP

-

-

Race over time

The race for the White House can be a volatile one due. Take a look at the race over time.

Win House

Proj. Seats

What the Chamber could look like.

The forecast runs thousands of simulations,below shows the distribution of how the House could look like after the election.

Harris Wins

All Outcomes

Trump Wins

Getting the Majority

In the event of a 50/50 tie, the Vice president breaks the tie. Be aware, some of the paths are very unlikely, the model runs 10,000 of these. The highlighted state is the state that gets the majority party the majority.

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The Battlegrounds

With the polarization of US politics now, and the structure of the Electoral College, presiential elections come down to a few key states. The state that gets the winner over the 270 mark is called the tipping point state. The graphic below shows the tipping point states, as well as their margins.