House

Senate

Texas 15th

80% Confidence Candidate LO Proj. Vote HI

The Ups and Downs of the race

The election cycle is an always moving machine. See the evolution of the race for Texas' 15th Congressional seat.

Win Texas 15th

Proj. Vote


<<< Return to National Forecast <<<


Out with the Old, and in with the New

After every census each state draws new congressional seats based off the changes in population. Some states may gain seats, while others lose those seats.


What can you compare Texas' 15th Congressional District to?

The map below shows what districts are most and least similar to Texas' 15th District. Using demographics and partisan trends, each district gets a District Similiarty Index (DSI). The more green, the more similar, while the pink are less similar. The 30 most similar districts have a black outline aorund them.

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The Data Smoothie

A lot of data goes into creating a forecast. See what is moving the needle below. The Bigger the squares the bigger the weight in the model.

Polling District Similarity Experts CNalysisCook Political ReportInside ElectionSabato's Crystal Ball Fundamentals PVIFundraisingIncumbency BumpGeneral BallotBiden Approval PROJ. MARGIN

Polling in Texas' 15th

The polls below are the polls that are used to compute the polling average in Texas' 15th.

JHK FORECASTS

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Texas 15th


The Ups and Downs of the race

The election cycle is an always moving machine. See the evolution of the race for the Texas' 15th House seat.

Win Texas 15th

Proj. Vote


<<< Return to National Forecast <<<


Out with the Old, and in with the New

After every census each state draws new congressional seats based off the changes in population. Some states may gain seats, while others lose those seats.


What can you compare Texas' 15th Congressional District to?

The table below shows what districts are most and least similar to Texas' 15th District. Using demographics and partisan trends, each district gets a District Similiarty Index (DSI). The more green, the more similar, while the pink are less similar.


The Data Smoothie

A lot of data goes into creating a forecast. See what is moving the needle below.

Polling Experts District Similarity CNalysis Cook Political Report Inside Election Sabato's Crystal Ball Fundamentals PVI Fundraising Incumbency Bump General Ballot Biden Approval PROJ. MARGIN

*District similarity takes the polling averages from similar districts and adjusts those averages based on similarity and the fundamentals of that state.

**Districts with major third party candidates or awkward elections, have differnet calculations than the others.


Polling in Texas' 15th

The polls below are the polls that are used to compute the polling average in Texas' 15th.